FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC ST. Gallen

2/2/2020

Super League · Round 20St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Basel 189351%

×Draw22%

FC ST. Gallen27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.33

FC Basel 1893

1.90

FC ST. Gallen

1.33

FC Basel 1893 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.69

creates per match

1.51

1.15

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.69

FC ST. Gallen

1.51

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.15

FC ST. Gallen

2.10

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.04on par

FC ST. Gallen+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

73%

FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen

78%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

49%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

29%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

85%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

56%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

29%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

74%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

38%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

65%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.10 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.69 + FC ST. Gallen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.51 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

51%

level

22%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

27%

FC Basel 1893 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff