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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion — Schweizer Cup 2019

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Sion
FC Sion
12/4/2024Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Basel 189329%
×Draw19%
FC Sion52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.94
FC Sion
2.60

FC Sion creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
3.00
FC Sion
2.87

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
2.33
FC Sion
0.87

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
FC Sion+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
48%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion
81%
Draw or FC Sion
71%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
15%
FC Sion wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
86%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
58%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
30%
FC Sion 1+ goals
92%
FC Sion 2+ goals
73%
FC Sion 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
36%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

FC Sion away — creates 2.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.00 + FC Sion defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Sion attack 2.87 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
29%
level
19%
FC Sion scores more
52%

FC Sion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion

FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion drew 2-2 in Schweizer Cup on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.