FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC Sion: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Sion

Hugo Novoa 70'

Z. Amdouni 61'

A. Zeqiri 36'

M. Araz 15'

2/11/2023

Super League · Round 20St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189340%

×Draw25%

FC Sion35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.38

FC Basel 1893

1.49

FC Sion

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.87

creates per match

1.66

1.09

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.87

FC Sion

1.66

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.09

FC Sion

1.11

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.29scores less

FC Sion+0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Sion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

65%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion

75%

Draw or FC Sion

60%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

19%

FC Sion wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

77%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

44%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

19%

FC Sion 1+ goals

75%

FC Sion 2+ goals

40%

FC Sion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

53%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.09 · 12 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.11 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.87 + FC Sion defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

FC Sion attack 1.66 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

40%

level

25%

FC Sion scores more

35%

FC Basel 1893 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Z. Amdouni

FC Basel 1893 · M

8.2

Match Events

15'

M. Araz↳ D. Poha

36'

A. Zeqiri↳ Z. Amdouni

38'

Andi ZeqiriGoal confirmed

55'

61'

70'

74'

74'

76'

76'

83'

A. Kade← D. Ndoye

84'

K. Bua← Itaitinga

90'

K. Sène← Z. Amdouni

90'

Sergio López← Hugo Novoa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

24Total Shots8

6Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

24Total Shots8

12On Target2

10Off Target3

2Blocked3

18Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

433Total Passes440

369Accurate Passes347

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2