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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Sion
FC Sion
2/17/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189337%
×Draw25%
FC Sion37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.39
FC Sion
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.69
FC Sion
1.62

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.15
FC Sion
1.09

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.04on par
FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
63%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion
75%
Draw or FC Sion
63%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
17%
FC Sion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
75%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
40%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
16%
FC Sion 1+ goals
75%
FC Sion 2+ goals
40%
FC Sion 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
50%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.69 + FC Sion defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Sion attack 1.62 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Sion scores more
37%

FC Basel 1893 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 1-0 in Super League on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.