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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Preview
16:00
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
11/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14St. Jakob-Park
Big match
38%
FC Basel 1893
model favours
38%24%38%

FC Basel 1893 score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189338%
×Draw24%
FC Luzern38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.96
FC Luzern
1.95

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.04
FC Luzern
1.05

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.40scores less
FC Luzern+0.19scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
62%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Luzern
76%
Draw or FC Luzern
62%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
18%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
78%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
44%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
19%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
78%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
44%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
50%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.96 + FC Luzern defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Luzern attack 1.95 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
38%
level
24%
FC Luzern scores more
38%

FC Basel 1893 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of FC Basel 1893’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — FC Basel 1893 play Defensively solid, FC Luzern Attack-heavy
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Basel 1893
Defensively solid
FC Luzern
Attack-heavy
54%Possession53%
82%Pass accuracy79%
14.0Shots16.0
1.78xGBiggest gap2.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC Basel 1893FC Luzern

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
3
FC Luzern
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 70%
2–42–11–24–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
1893
DLWL
Luzern
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern — Match Preview

FC Basel 1893 face FC Luzern on November 21, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Basel 1893 host FC Luzern at St. Jakob-Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.