FC Basel 1893 0–2 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Luzern

L. Breedijk 89'

D. Sorgić 71'

4/23/2023

Super League · Round 29St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FC Basel 189342%

×Draw24%

FC Luzern34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.47

FC Basel 1893

1.65

FC Luzern

1.47

FC Basel 1893 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.87

creates per match

1.84

1.09

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.87

FC Luzern

1.84

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.09

FC Luzern

1.42

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.29scores less

FC Luzern+0.06on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

66%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Luzern

76%

Draw or FC Luzern

58%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

21%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

81%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

49%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

23%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

77%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

43%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

55%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.09 · 12 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.87 + FC Luzern defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Luzern attack 1.84 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

42%

level

24%

FC Luzern scores more

34%

FC Basel 1893 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Frýdek

FC Luzern · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

31'

40'

54'

57'

57'

62'

64'

M. Dräger← S. Ottiger

67'

A. Zeqiri← J. Augustin

71'

D. Sorgić↳ M. Frýdek

79'

Darian Males

81'

A. Diouf← D. Males

81'

L. Villiger← M. Meyer

86'

L. Breedijk← P. Schürpf

86'

M. Diambou← D. Sorgić

89'

L. Breedijk

90+5'

Martin Frýdek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

4Total Shots10

2Corners7

16Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots10

0On Target5

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

4Inside Box9

0Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

428Total Passes387

344Accurate Passes282

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4