FC Basel 1893 3–2 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

FC Luzern

5/15/2019

Super League · Round 34St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Basel 189338%

×Draw25%

FC Luzern37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.42

FC Basel 1893

1.46

FC Luzern

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.69

creates per match

1.68

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.69

FC Luzern

1.68

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.15

FC Luzern

1.24

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.04on par

FC Luzern-0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

63%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Luzern

75%

Draw or FC Luzern

62%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

18%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

77%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

43%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

18%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

76%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

41%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

51%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.69 + FC Luzern defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Luzern attack 1.68 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

38%

level

25%

FC Luzern scores more

37%

FC Basel 1893 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff