FC Basel 1893 3–3 FC Aarau: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

3 – 3

FC Aarau

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189339%

×Draw19%

FC Aarau42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Aarau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

2.38

FC Basel 1893

2.30

FC Aarau

2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.38

creates per match

2.00

2.75

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

2.38

FC Aarau

2.00

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

2.75

FC Aarau

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Aarau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

58%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Aarau

81%

Draw or FC Aarau

61%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

22%

FC Aarau wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

90%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

67%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

40%

FC Aarau 1+ goals

91%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

68%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

48%

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.38 + FC Aarau defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.30

FC Aarau attack 2.00 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

39%

level

19%

FC Aarau scores more

42%

FC Aarau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff