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FC Basel 1893 vs Dynamo Kyiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 3
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
5/4/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Basel 189335%
×Draw21%
Dynamo Kyiv44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.87
Dynamo Kyiv
2.09

Dynamo Kyiv creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.94
Dynamo Kyiv
1.93

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
2.25
Dynamo Kyiv
1.80

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
56%
FC Basel 1893 or Dynamo Kyiv
79%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
65%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
18%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
85%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
56%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
29%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
88%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
62%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
45%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.94 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.87

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.93 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
35%
level
21%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
44%

Dynamo Kyiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Basel 1893 2–3 Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat FC Basel 1893 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.