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FC Basel 1893 vs Apoel Nicosia — UEFA Europa League 2026

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
2/27/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189341%
×Draw26%
Apoel Nicosia33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.43
Apoel Nicosia
1.26

FC Basel 1893 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.00
Apoel Nicosia
1.43

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.09
Apoel Nicosia
0.86

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
67%
FC Basel 1893 or Apoel Nicosia
74%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
59%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
19%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
76%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
42%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
17%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
72%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
36%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
55%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.00 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.43 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
41%
level
26%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
33%

FC Basel 1893 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs Apoel Nicosia

FC Basel 1893 beat Apoel Nicosia 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.