FC Astra Giurgiu 1–1 Unirea Slobozia

FC Astra Giurgiu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unirea Slobozia

8/28/2021

Liga II · Round 5Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu23%

×Draw24%

Unirea Slobozia53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Astra GiurgiuExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.73

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.04

Unirea Slobozia

1.73

Unirea Slobozia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

2.15

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.00

Unirea Slobozia

1.31

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

2.15

Unirea Slobozia

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw

47%

FC Astra Giurgiu or Unirea Slobozia

76%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

77%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

8%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

65%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

28%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

9%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

82%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

52%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

30%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.00 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.31 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

23%

level

24%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

53%

Unirea Slobozia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff