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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
3/5/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu49%
×Draw21%
Unirea Constanța30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
2.12
Unirea Constanța
1.61

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.00
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
2.15
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
70%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Unirea Constanța
79%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
51%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
29%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
88%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
62%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
35%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
80%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
48%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
63%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.00 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
49%
level
21%
Unirea Constanța scores more
30%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Astra Giurgiu 2–3 Unirea Constanța

Unirea Constanța beat FC Astra Giurgiu 3-2 in Liga II on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.