FC Astra Giurgiu 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FC Astra Giurgiu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

8/4/2018

Liga I · Round 3Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu39%

×Draw27%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Astra GiurgiuExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.31

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 135 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.36

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.18

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.25

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw

66%

FC Astra Giurgiu or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

73%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

61%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

18%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

73%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

38%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

14%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

70%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

34%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

53%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

39%

level

27%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

34%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff