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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga II 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
10/31/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 12Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu19%
×Draw23%
Petrolul Ploiesti58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
0.97
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.86

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.00
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.57

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
2.15
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
42%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Petrolul Ploiesti
77%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
81%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
7%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
62%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
25%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
7%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
84%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
55%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.00 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
19%
level
23%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
58%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Astra Giurgiu 1–2 Petrolul Ploiesti

Petrolul Ploiesti beat FC Astra Giurgiu 2-1 in Liga II on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.