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FC Astra Giurgiu vs CS Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
12/8/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 20Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu35%
×Draw27%
CS Universitatea Craiova38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.24
CS Universitatea Craiova
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 155 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
CS Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
CS Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
62%
FC Astra Giurgiu or CS Universitatea Craiova
73%
Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova
65%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
15%
CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
71%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
35%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
13%
CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
73%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
38%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
48%
CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
35%
level
27%
CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
38%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astra Giurgiu vs CS Universitatea Craiova

FC Astra Giurgiu beat CS Universitatea Craiova 1-0 in Liga I on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.