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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Corona Braşov — Liga II 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
10/2/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu31%
×Draw27%
Corona Braşov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.11
Corona Braşov
1.35

Corona Braşov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.00
Corona Braşov
0.56

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
2.15
Corona Braşov
1.22

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Corona Braşov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Corona Braşov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
58%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Corona Braşov
73%
Draw or Corona Braşov
69%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
12%
Corona Braşov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
67%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
30%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
10%
Corona Braşov 1+ goals
74%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
39%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
42%
Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Corona Braşov away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.00 + Corona Braşov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Corona Braşov attack 0.56 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
31%
level
27%
Corona Braşov scores more
42%

Corona Braşov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Corona Braşov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astra Giurgiu vs Corona Braşov

FC Astra Giurgiu beat Corona Braşov 2-0 in Liga II on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.