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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
12/7/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 12Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu41%
×Draw28%
Chindia Targoviste30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.24
Chindia Targoviste
1.02

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 76 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
Chindia Targoviste
0.78

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
Chindia Targoviste
1.11

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
70%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Chindia Targoviste
72%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
59%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
18%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
71%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
35%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
13%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
64%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
27%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
58%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
41%
level
28%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
30%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astra Giurgiu vs Chindia Targoviste

FC Astra Giurgiu and Chindia Targoviste drew 0-0 in Liga I on December 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.