FC Astra Giurgiu 3–2 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

FC Astra Giurgiu

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

8/31/2019

Liga I · Round 8Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu32%

×Draw27%

CFR 1907 Cluj41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Astra GiurgiuExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.36

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.16

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.36

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 154 away

1.36

creates per match

1.47

1.25

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.36

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.25

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw

59%

FC Astra Giurgiu or CFR 1907 Cluj

73%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

68%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

13%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

69%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

32%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

11%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

74%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

39%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

44%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

32%

level

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

41%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff