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CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
12/16/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj50%
×Draw26%
FC Astra Giurgiu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.48
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.93

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 59% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 54 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
76%
CFR 1907 Cluj or FC Astra Giurgiu
74%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
50%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
25%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
77%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
43%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
19%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
61%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
24%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
68%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
50%
level
26%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
24%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Astra Giurgiu

CFR 1907 Cluj beat FC Astra Giurgiu 2-0 in Liga I on December 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.