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FC Astra Giurgiu vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
3/7/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 26Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu44%
×Draw27%
AFC Hermannstadt29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.39
AFC Hermannstadt
1.07

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 30% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 138 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
AFC Hermannstadt
1.42

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
71%
FC Astra Giurgiu or AFC Hermannstadt
73%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
56%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
21%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
75%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
40%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
16%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
66%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
29%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
60%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
44%
level
27%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
29%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astra Giurgiu vs AFC Hermannstadt

FC Astra Giurgiu beat AFC Hermannstadt 2-1 in Liga I on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.