FC Astoria Walldorf 4–0 Neckarsulmer SU

FC Astoria Walldorf

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Neckarsulmer SU

1/29/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Astoria Walldorf84%

×Draw10%

Neckarsulmer SU6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Astoria WalldorfExpected goals in this matchNeckarsulmer SU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.54

0.92

FC Astoria Walldorf

3.54

Neckarsulmer SU

0.92

FC Astoria Walldorf creates 285% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.75

creates per match

0.33

1.50

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

FC Astoria Walldorf

3.75

Neckarsulmer SU

0.33

allows per match

FC Astoria Walldorf

1.50

Neckarsulmer SU

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Astoria Walldorf+0.00on par

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astoria Walldorf ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

FC Astoria Walldorf or draw

94%

FC Astoria Walldorf or Neckarsulmer SU

90%

Draw or Neckarsulmer SU

16%

Winning margin

FC Astoria Walldorf wins by 2+

67%

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FC Astoria Walldorf 1+ goals

97%

FC Astoria Walldorf 2+ goals

86%

FC Astoria Walldorf 3+ goals

66%

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

60%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

23%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Astoria Walldorf (draw refunded)

93%

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astoria Walldorf at home — creates 3.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astoria Walldorf attack 3.75 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.54

Neckarsulmer SU attack 0.33 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

FC Astoria Walldorf scores more

84%

level

10%

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

6%

FC Astoria Walldorf at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "FC Astoria Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff