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FC Astana vs Lausanne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FC Astana
FC Astana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lausanne
Lausanne
G. Diakite 66'
B. Lekoueiry 48'
8/14/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Astana36%
×Draw30%
Lausanne33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
1.05
Lausanne
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Astana
1.40
Lausanne
0.86

allows per match

FC Astana
1.13
Lausanne
0.71

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
67%
FC Astana or Lausanne
70%
Draw or Lausanne
64%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
14%
Lausanne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
65%
FC Astana 2+ goals
28%
FC Astana 3+ goals
9%
Lausanne 1+ goals
63%
Lausanne 2+ goals
26%
Lausanne 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
52%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Lausanne away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 1.40 + Lausanne defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Lausanne attack 0.86 + FC Astana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Astana scores more
36%
level
30%
Lausanne scores more
33%

FC Astana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
K. LeticaFC AstanaFC Astana
8.2

Match Events

15'
Ivan Bašić
41'
Yan Vorogovskiy
48'
B. Lekoueiry
51'
Max Ebong
66'
G. Diakite
69'
N. Butler-Oyedeji← M. K. Sene
69'
S. N'Diaye← B. Lekoueiry
72'
D. Camaj← O. Camara
72'
N. Zhaksylykov← M. Tomasov
72'
A. Beysebekov← N. Gripshi
75'
Abzal Beysebekov
77'
H. Abdallah← K. Mouanga
83'
D. Shomko← Y. Vorogovskiy
83'
R. Karimov← C. Geoffrey
86'
Max Ebong
86'
Max Ebong
90+2'
Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
90'
A. Ajdini← G. Diakite

Possession

67%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCLausanne
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots24
6Corners4
18Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots24
5On Target7
3Off Target10
6Blocked7
8Inside Box13
6Outside Box11
Passing
67%Possession33%
488Total Passes239
424Accurate Passes185
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls9
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Astana vs Lausanne

Lausanne beat FC Astana 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 14, 2025.

Goals: B. Lekoueiry (48'), G. Diakite (66').

FC Astana controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 24.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Astana.