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FC Astana vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Champions League 2018

FC Astana
FC Astana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
8/7/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Astana37%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Zagreb32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
1.07
Dinamo Zagreb
0.97

FC Astana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Astana
1.00
Dinamo Zagreb
1.20

allows per match

FC Astana
0.75
Dinamo Zagreb
1.15

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
68%
FC Astana or Dinamo Zagreb
70%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
63%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
66%
FC Astana 2+ goals
29%
FC Astana 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
54%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 1.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.20 + FC Astana defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Astana scores more
37%
level
30%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
32%

FC Astana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: FC Astana 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb beat FC Astana 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on August 7, 2018.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Astana.