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FC Astana vs Arys — Cup 2019

FC Astana
FC Astana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Arys
Arys
7/31/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 4Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Astana59%
×Draw21%
Arys20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
2.08
Arys
1.14

FC Astana creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Astana
2.07
Arys
0.92

allows per match

FC Astana
1.36
Arys
2.08

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
80%
FC Astana or Arys
79%
Draw or Arys
41%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
36%
Arys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
87%
FC Astana 2+ goals
61%
FC Astana 3+ goals
34%
Arys 1+ goals
68%
Arys 2+ goals
32%
Arys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
74%
Arys (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Arys away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 2.07 + Arys defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Arys attack 0.92 + FC Astana defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Astana scores more
59%
level
21%
Arys scores more
20%

FC Astana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Astana vs Arys

FC Astana beat Arys 2-1 in Cup on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Nur-Sultan.