FC Armavir 1–0 Tyumen: Result & Stats

FC Armavir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tyumen

11/18/2018

First League · Round 23Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir43%

×Draw30%

Tyumen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ArmavirExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.89

FC Armavir

1.20

Tyumen

0.89

FC Armavir creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Tyumen

0.78

allows per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Tyumen

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw

73%

FC Armavir or Tyumen

70%

Draw or Tyumen

57%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+

19%

Tyumen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals

70%

FC Armavir 2+ goals

34%

FC Armavir 3+ goals

12%

Tyumen 1+ goals

59%

Tyumen 2+ goals

22%

Tyumen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)

61%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tyumen attack 0.78 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Armavir scores more

43%

level

30%

Tyumen scores more

27%

FC Armavir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff