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FC Armavir vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir42%
×Draw29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
1.24
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

FC Armavir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 123 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
71%
FC Armavir or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
58%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
19%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
71%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
35%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Armavir scores more
42%
level
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
29%

FC Armavir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FC Armavir 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

FC Armavir and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 0-0 in First League on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Yunost' (Armavir).