FC Armavir 0–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

FC Armavir

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

10/19/2019

First League · Round 18Stadion Yunost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir33%

×Draw31%

Rotor Volgograd36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ArmavirExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.03

FC Armavir

0.97

Rotor Volgograd

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 87 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw

64%

FC Armavir or Rotor Volgograd

69%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

67%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+

12%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals

62%

FC Armavir 2+ goals

25%

FC Armavir 3+ goals

7%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

64%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

28%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)

48%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Armavir scores more

33%

level

31%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

36%

Rotor Volgograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff