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FC Armavir vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
8/26/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir31%
×Draw28%
PFC Sochi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
1.04
PFC Sochi
1.23

PFC Sochi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
60%
FC Armavir or PFC Sochi
72%
Draw or PFC Sochi
69%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
12%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
65%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
28%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
9%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
71%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
35%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
43%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Armavir scores more
31%
level
28%
PFC Sochi scores more
40%

PFC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Armavir vs PFC Sochi

PFC Sochi beat FC Armavir 3-0 in First League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Yunost' (Armavir).