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FC Armavir vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
CANC
00:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir31%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
0.95
Nizhny Novgorod
1.09

Nizhny Novgorod creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
62%
FC Armavir or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
69%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
11%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
61%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
25%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
7%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
66%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
30%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
45%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Armavir scores more
31%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Armavir host Nizhny Novgorod

April 4, 2020: FC Armavir take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.