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FC Armavir vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
9/19/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir37%
×Draw29%
Fakel Voronezh34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
1.16
Fakel Voronezh
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 89 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
66%
FC Armavir or Fakel Voronezh
71%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
63%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
15%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
69%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
32%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
11%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
67%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
30%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
52%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Armavir scores more
37%
level
29%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
34%

FC Armavir at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Armavir vs Fakel Voronezh

FC Armavir beat Fakel Voronezh 4-1 in First League on September 19, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Yunost' (Armavir).