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FC Armavir vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
11/10/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Yunost' (Armavir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir40%
×Draw28%
Chertanovo Moscow32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
1.27
Chertanovo Moscow
1.10

FC Armavir creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
68%
FC Armavir or Chertanovo Moscow
72%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
60%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
18%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
72%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
36%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
14%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
67%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
30%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
56%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Armavir scores more
40%
level
28%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
32%

FC Armavir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FC Armavir 1–3 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat FC Armavir 3-1 in First League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Yunost' (Armavir).