FC Anyang 1–0 Siheung Citizen: Result & Stats

FC Anyang

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siheung Citizen

3/23/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundAnyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Anyang46%

×Draw26%

Siheung Citizen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AnyangExpected goals in this matchSiheung Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

FC Anyang

1.44

Siheung Citizen

1.06

FC Anyang creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.78

creates per match

0.91

1.22

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

FC Anyang

1.78

Siheung Citizen

0.91

allows per match

FC Anyang

1.22

Siheung Citizen

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Siheung Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Anyang ↓

Siheung Citizen →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Anyang or draw

72%

FC Anyang or Siheung Citizen

74%

Draw or Siheung Citizen

54%

Winning margin

FC Anyang wins by 2+

22%

Siheung Citizen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Anyang 1+ goals

76%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

42%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

18%

Siheung Citizen 1+ goals

65%

Siheung Citizen 2+ goals

29%

Siheung Citizen 3+ goals

Draw no bet

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

62%

Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Anyang at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Siheung Citizen away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Anyang attack 1.78 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Siheung Citizen attack 0.91 + FC Anyang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Anyang scores more

46%

level

26%

Siheung Citizen scores more

28%

FC Anyang at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Anyang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff