FC Anyang 3–2 Daejeon Citizen: Result & Stats

FC Anyang

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Daejeon Citizen

8/24/2025

K League 1 · Round 27Anyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Anyang39%

×Draw26%

Daejeon Citizen36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AnyangExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.33

FC Anyang

1.40

Daejeon Citizen

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 67 away

1.31

creates per match

1.52

1.14

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FC Anyang

1.31

Daejeon Citizen

1.52

allows per match

FC Anyang

1.14

Daejeon Citizen

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Anyang ↓

Daejeon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Anyang or draw

64%

FC Anyang or Daejeon Citizen

74%

Draw or Daejeon Citizen

61%

Winning margin

FC Anyang wins by 2+

18%

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Anyang 1+ goals

75%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

41%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

17%

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

74%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

38%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

52%

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Anyang at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Anyang attack 1.31 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + FC Anyang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Anyang scores more

39%

level

26%

Daejeon Citizen scores more

36%

FC Anyang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Anyang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff