Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Andorra vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
2/13/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Andorra50%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.43
Villarreal II
0.89

FC Andorra creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.79
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.58
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
77%
FC Andorra or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
50%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
24%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
76%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
42%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
17%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
59%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
22%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
68%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.79 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + FC Andorra defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Andorra scores more
50%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
23%

FC Andorra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: FC Andorra 0–1 Villarreal II

Villarreal II beat FC Andorra 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.