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FC Andorra vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
11/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Andorra53%
×Draw26%
Unionistas de Salamanca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.50
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.82

FC Andorra creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.74
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.74
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
79%
FC Andorra or Unionistas de Salamanca
74%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
47%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
78%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
44%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
19%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
56%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
20%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
72%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.74 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + FC Andorra defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Andorra scores more
53%
level
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
21%

FC Andorra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Unionistas de Salamanca

FC Andorra and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.