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FC Andorra vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
4/26/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Andorra43%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.33
Racing Santander
1.05

FC Andorra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.24
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.94
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
71%
FC Andorra or Racing Santander
73%
Draw or Racing Santander
57%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
20%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
74%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
38%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
15%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
65%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
28%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
59%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Andorra scores more
43%
level
27%
Racing Santander scores more
29%

FC Andorra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Racing Santander

FC Andorra and Racing Santander drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.