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FC Andorra vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
6/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Andorra51%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.40
Racing Ferrol
0.80

FC Andorra creates 75% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.24
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.94
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
79%
FC Andorra or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
49%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
25%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
75%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
41%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
17%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
55%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
19%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
70%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Andorra scores more
51%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
21%

FC Andorra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Racing Ferrol

FC Andorra beat Racing Ferrol 1-0 in Segunda División on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.