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FC Andorra vs FC Cartagena — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
8/18/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Andorra48%
×Draw27%
FC Cartagena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.41
FC Cartagena
0.94

FC Andorra creates 50% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.24
FC Cartagena
0.95

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.94
FC Cartagena
1.57

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
75%
FC Andorra or FC Cartagena
73%
Draw or FC Cartagena
52%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
23%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
76%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
41%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
17%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
61%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
24%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
66%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Andorra scores more
48%
level
27%
FC Cartagena scores more
25%

FC Andorra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Andorra 3 – 2 FC Cartagena

FC Andorra beat FC Cartagena 3-2 in Segunda División on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.