Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Andorra vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elche
1/28/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 24Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

FC Andorra43%
×Draw28%
Elche29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.27
Elche
1.00

FC Andorra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.24
Elche
1.07

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.94
Elche
1.29

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
71%
FC Andorra or Elche
72%
Draw or Elche
57%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
19%
Elche wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
72%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
36%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
14%
Elche 1+ goals
63%
Elche 2+ goals
26%
Elche 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
59%
Elche (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.24 + Elche defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Elche attack 1.07 + FC Andorra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Andorra scores more
43%
level
28%
Elche scores more
29%

FC Andorra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Elche

Elche beat FC Andorra 1-0 in Segunda División on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.