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FC Andorra vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
10/31/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Andorra62%
×Draw23%
Cornellà15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.73
Cornellà
0.71

FC Andorra creates 144% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.79
Cornellà
0.84

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.58
Cornellà
1.66

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
85%
FC Andorra or Cornellà
77%
Draw or Cornellà
38%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
35%
Cornellà wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
82%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
52%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
25%
Cornellà 1+ goals
51%
Cornellà 2+ goals
16%
Cornellà 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
81%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.79 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cornellà attack 0.84 + FC Andorra defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Andorra scores more
62%
level
23%
Cornellà scores more
15%

FC Andorra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Cornellà

FC Andorra beat Cornellà 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.