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FC Aarau vs Rapperswil — Challenge League 2026

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Preview
17:30
Rapperswil
Rapperswil
9/4/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 7
Big match
52%
FC Aarau
model favours
52%24%24%

FC Aarau have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Aarau52%
×Draw24%
Rapperswil24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Aarau
1.67
Rapperswil
1.05

FC Aarau creates 59% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Aarau
1.92
Rapperswil
0.75

allows per match

FC Aarau
1.35
Rapperswil
1.42

finishing

FC Aarau+0.00on par
Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Aarau ↓

Rapperswil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Aarau or draw
76%
FC Aarau or Rapperswil
76%
Draw or Rapperswil
48%

Winning margin

FC Aarau wins by 2+
28%
Rapperswil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Aarau 1+ goals
81%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
50%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
23%
Rapperswil 1+ goals
65%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
28%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Aarau (draw refunded)
68%
Rapperswil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Aarau at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Aarau attack 1.92 + Rapperswil defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rapperswil attack 0.75 + FC Aarau defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Aarau scores more
52%
level
24%
Rapperswil scores more
24%

FC Aarau at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Aarau
WLLD
Rapperswil
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Aarau vs Rapperswil — Match Preview

FC Aarau face Rapperswil on September 4, 2026 in this Challenge League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.