FC Aarau 2–1 Erzgebirge Aue: Result & Stats

FC Aarau

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Erzgebirge Aue

C. Odutayo 78' (pen)

H. Koide 49'

K. Jakob 22'

1/10/2025

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Aarau51%

×Draw21%

Erzgebirge Aue28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AarauExpected goals in this matchErzgebirge Aue

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.50

FC Aarau

2.08

Erzgebirge Aue

1.50

FC Aarau creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Aarau

2.50

Erzgebirge Aue

1.67

allows per match

FC Aarau

1.33

Erzgebirge Aue

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Aarau+0.00on par

Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Aarau ↓

Erzgebirge Aue →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Aarau or draw

72%

FC Aarau or Erzgebirge Aue

79%

Draw or Erzgebirge Aue

49%

Winning margin

FC Aarau wins by 2+

30%

Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Aarau 1+ goals

87%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

61%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

34%

Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals

78%

Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals

44%

Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

65%

Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Aarau at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Aarau attack 2.50 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.67 + FC Aarau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Aarau scores more

51%

level

21%

Erzgebirge Aue scores more

28%

FC Aarau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Jakob

46'

E. Majetschak← A. Loune

46'

S. Nkansah← A. Barylla

49'

H. Koide

62'

S. Seitz← O. Sijaric

62'

R. Bornschein← M. Bar

62'

T. Hoffmann← N. Vukancic

62'

M. Burghardt← P. Fallmann

78'

H. Kaps← K. Jakob

78'

N. Lima Stacziwa← L. Rosenlocher

78'

C. OdutayoPenalty

Erzgebirge

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Manager: Brunello Iacopetta

FC Aarau substitutes

1Hubel74Hegner2Thaler4Hasani7Khaled17Koide21Jakob22Janko31Odutayo38KesslerVogtSimicEyamba

Manager: Jens Härtel

46'▲E. Majetschak←▼A. Loune

46'▲S. Nkansah←▼A. Barylla

62'▲S. Seitz←▼O. Sijaric

62'▲R. Bornschein←▼M. Bar

62'▲T. Hoffmann←▼N. Vukancic

62'▲M. Burghardt←▼P. Fallmann

78'▲H. Kaps←▼K. Jakob

78'▲N. Lima Stacziwa←▼L. Rosenlocher

Erzgebirge Aue substitutes

13Majetschak24Nkansah7Seitz9Bornschein19Hoffmann21BurghardtKaps6Stacziwa