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FC 1906 Erlensee vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
CANC
14:00
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
3/27/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 25Kunstrasenplatz KR2 Erlensee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC 1906 Erlensee55%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Griesheim24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.20
Viktoria Griesheim
1.41

FC 1906 Erlensee creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.02
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.63
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 1906 Erlensee ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC 1906 Erlensee or draw
76%
FC 1906 Erlensee or Viktoria Griesheim
79%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
45%

Winning margin

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
34%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
89%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
64%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
37%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
41%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
69%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.20

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
55%
level
21%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
24%

FC 1906 Erlensee at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC 1906 Erlensee vs Viktoria Griesheim — Match Preview

FC 1906 Erlensee face Viktoria Griesheim on March 27, 2021 in this Oberliga - Hessen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC 1906 Erlensee host Viktoria Griesheim at Kunstrasenplatz KR2 Erlensee.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.