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FC 105 vs Vautour Club — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vautour Club
Vautour Club
5/10/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC 10535%
×Draw26%
Vautour Club39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
1.31
Vautour Club
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Vautour Club
1.36

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Vautour Club
1.21

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Vautour Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
61%
FC 105 or Vautour Club
74%
Draw or Vautour Club
65%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
15%
Vautour Club wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
73%
FC 105 2+ goals
38%
FC 105 3+ goals
14%
Vautour Club 1+ goals
75%
Vautour Club 2+ goals
41%
Vautour Club 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
47%
Vautour Club (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC 105 scores more
35%
level
26%
Vautour Club scores more
39%

Vautour Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC 105 0 – 2 Vautour Club

Vautour Club beat FC 105 2-0 in Championnat D1 on May 10, 2026.