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FC 105 vs Lozo — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
1 – 0
Lozo
Lozo
11/9/2022Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 3Stade Idriss Ngari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC 10552%
×Draw24%
Lozo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
1.73
Lozo
1.09

FC 105 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Lozo
0.75

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Lozo
2.06

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Lozo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Lozo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
76%
FC 105 or Lozo
76%
Draw or Lozo
48%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
29%
Lozo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
82%
FC 105 2+ goals
52%
FC 105 3+ goals
25%
Lozo 1+ goals
66%
Lozo 2+ goals
30%
Lozo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
69%
Lozo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Lozo away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Lozo defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lozo attack 0.75 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC 105 scores more
52%
level
24%
Lozo scores more
24%

FC 105 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 105 vs Lozo

FC 105 beat Lozo 1-0 in Championnat D1 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Idriss Ngari in Owendo.