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FC 105 vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
6/3/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC 10529%
×Draw27%
Cercle Mbéri44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
1.05
Cercle Mbéri
1.37

Cercle Mbéri creates 30% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
56%
FC 105 or Cercle Mbéri
73%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
71%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
11%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
65%
FC 105 2+ goals
28%
FC 105 3+ goals
9%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
40%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
39%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC 105 scores more
29%
level
27%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
44%

Cercle Mbéri at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 105 vs Cercle Mbéri

Cercle Mbéri beat FC 105 5-1 in Championnat D1 on June 3, 2026.