FC 08 Villingen 4–0 VfR Mannheim: Result & Stats

FC 08 Villingen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

VfR Mannheim

8/5/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC 08 Villingen45%

×Draw22%

VfR Mannheim33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 08 VillingenExpected goals in this matchVfR Mannheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.63

FC 08 Villingen

1.92

VfR Mannheim

1.63

FC 08 Villingen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 51 away

2.25

creates per match

1.92

1.34

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen

2.25

VfR Mannheim

1.92

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen

1.34

VfR Mannheim

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

VfR Mannheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw

67%

FC 08 Villingen or VfR Mannheim

78%

Draw or VfR Mannheim

55%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

25%

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

85%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

57%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

30%

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

80%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

48%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

57%

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more

45%

level

22%

VfR Mannheim scores more

33%

FC 08 Villingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff