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FC 08 Villingen vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
CANC
14:30
SV Linx
SV Linx
11/28/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC 08 Villingen59%
×Draw19%
SV Linx22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.42
SV Linx
1.43

FC 08 Villingen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
78%
FC 08 Villingen or SV Linx
81%
Draw or SV Linx
41%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
38%
SV Linx wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
91%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
69%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
43%
SV Linx 1+ goals
76%
SV Linx 2+ goals
42%
SV Linx 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
73%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

SV Linx attack 1.52 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
59%
level
19%
SV Linx scores more
22%

FC 08 Villingen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC 08 Villingen host SV Linx

November 28, 2020: FC 08 Villingen take on SV Linx in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC 08 Villingen host SV Linx at MS Technologie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.