FC 08 Villingen 1–3 Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

FC 08 Villingen

FT

1 – 3

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

10/9/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 12MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC 08 Villingen56%

×Draw20%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 08 VillingenExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.39

FC 08 Villingen

2.23

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.39

FC 08 Villingen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

2.25

creates per match

1.44

1.34

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen

2.25

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.44

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen

1.34

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw

76%

FC 08 Villingen or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

80%

Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

44%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

35%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

89%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

65%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

38%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

75%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

40%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

70%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more

56%

level

20%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

24%

FC 08 Villingen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff