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FC 08 Villingen vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
FT
1 – 1
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
8/22/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC 08 Villingen57%
×Draw20%
Sandhausen II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.21
Sandhausen II
1.33

FC 08 Villingen creates 66% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
77%
FC 08 Villingen or Sandhausen II
80%
Draw or Sandhausen II
43%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
35%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
89%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
65%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
38%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
74%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
38%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
72%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
57%
level
20%
Sandhausen II scores more
23%

FC 08 Villingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 08 Villingen vs Sandhausen II

FC 08 Villingen and Sandhausen II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.